PhD Scientific Days 2025

Pharmaceutical Sciences and Health Technologies IV.

Analyzing Meat Reduction Policies in Germany Using Microsimulation Modeling

Előadó neve

Dr. Mészáros Ágota

Neptun code

IFRQ5T

Előadó munkahelye

Semmelweis University, Center for Health Technology Assessment

Előadó telefonszáma

+36203122929

Előadó e-mail címe

meszaros.agota@phd.semmelweis.hu

Az előadás címe

Analyzing Meat Reduction Policies in Germany Using Microsimulation Modeling

Szerző(k) neve és munkahelye

Ágota Mészáros¹, Xiao Tan², Karl Emmert-Fees², Michael Laxy²

1: Semmelweis University, Center for Health Technology Assessment
2: Technical University of Munich, Professorship of Public Health and Prevention

Bemutatás módja

Szóbeli

Szekció

Pharmaceutical Sciences and Health Technologies IV.

Language of the presentation

English

Preferred session

Pharmaceutical Sciences and Health Technologies

Összefoglaló szövege

Analyzing meat reduction policies in Germany using microsimulation modeling

Authors: Ágota Mészáros, Xiao Tan, Karl Emmert-Fees, Michael Laxy

Introduction: Excessive consumption of red and processed meat (R&PM) contributes to greenhouse gas emissions and the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Fiscal policies can incentivize healthy and sustainable dietary choices.

Aims: This study aims to evaluate the health, economic, and environmental impact of R&PM taxation measures in Germany.

Methods: We evaluated three meat pricing scenarios in the German adult population: (A) increasing the value-added tax (VAT) on R&PM from 7% to 19%, and (B) an excise tax on R&PM based on carbon emission intensities (C) R&PM price changes needed to adhere to the Planetary Health Diet (PHD). Price elasticities were applied to quantify dietary change. We parametrized a microsimulation model (IMPACTNCD) that captures the baseline demographics, risk factor profile, and disease epidemiology of the German population using the best national and international evidence available. Outcomes included changes in cases prevented or postponed from relevant NCDs, related healthcare costs, productivity losses and environmental impacts.

Results: Preliminary analyses indicate that a 19% VAT would reduce annual per capita intake of red and processed meat by 7.77% (-1.19 kg) and 7.82% (-1.49 kg), respectively, reducing CO₂eq emissions by 12.47 kg. A €305/tCO₂eq carbon price would lead to an excise tax of €4.15/kg on red meat and €2.41/kg on processed meat, reducing intake by 15.24% (-2.34 kg) and 8.47% (-1.61 kg), respectively, with a 20.66 kg CO₂eq reduction. Following the PHD, red meat intake would drop by 66.67% (-10.22 kg) and processed meat 100% (-18.98 kg), reducing 125 kg CO₂eq. Achieving this would require a 96.1% and 143.1% tax, respectively.

Conclusion: The taxation of R&PM can contribute to improving population health and reduce the environmental impact of meat consumption in Germany. The results of this study convey important information for policymakers by quantifying the health and environmental co-benefits of taxation scenarios using different rationales.

Funding: Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt, Food-PlanetH

Presenting author: Ágota Mészáros
Email: meszaros.agota@phd.semmelweis.hu
University: Semmelweis University
Supervisor: Dr. Zoltán Vokó

University

Semmelweis University

Supervisor

Prof. Dr. Zoltán Vokó

Publication of my abstract

I do not give consent to the publication of my abstract on the website of the congress.

phd.section.field

in doctoral studies after complex exam (PhD)

Kind

Szabad

Status

elfogadva

Accepted presentation method

szóbeli

Előadás fájl jóváhagyás

nem hagyta jóvá

Előadó

7432

Start

16:00

End

16:15